Five reasons Adam Lambert will be the next American Idol (and five reasons he won't)

WHY ADAM LAMBERT WILL BE THE NEXT AMERICAN IDOL

1. His performances have outshined the rest of the contestants by a mile.

2. He has become a cultural phenomeon, drawing new viewers and voters into the show.

3. Tween girls and Silver Foxes love him.

4. As they get into multiple-song territory, he alone posses the musical ingenuity to take on that burden.

5. In a "change"-oriented cultural climate, Lambert is a new type of star to carry "Idol" into a new era.

WHY HE WON'T

1.His backstory is too Hollywood/Broadway professional, defying the rags-to-riches narrative that is at "Idol's" core.

2. He has captured the heart of Blue State America, but Red State America owns "Idol."

3. His onstage banter is too controlled, less emotive and less cuddly than the others.

4. His style is too far afield from those that have dominated "Idol" in years past.

5. At the time of this writing, the tween vote remains divided.